The market

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The market is currently undergoing a normalization phase. Following the turbulence of recent years, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of transition marked by renewed stability, although affordability remains a significant challenge.

1. Price and Sales Trends

Unlike other Canadian provinces, Quebec is showing great resilience. Prices are not dropping; they are either plateauing or slightly increasing depending on the sector.

  • Single-Family Homes: The provincial median price is expected to reach approximately $520,200 this year (+6%). In Montreal, a median price of around $645,000 is projected.

  • Condominiums: Growth is more modest, with a projected provincial median price of $408,000 (+3%).

  • Sales Volume: Roughly 95,700 transactions are anticipated for the year, a slight 2% decrease from 2025, signaling a market "breather" after a surprisingly active 2025.

2. Interest Rates: The "New Normal"

The rate-cutting cycle appears to have concluded. The Bank of Canada is holding its policy rate at 2.25%, and most experts predict stability for the remainder of 2026.

  • Fixed mortgage rates are stabilizing between 3.5% and 4.5%.

  • This stability offers better predictability for buyers, but strict qualification rules (stress tests) continue to act as a barrier, particularly for first-time homebuyers.

3. The Supply Challenge (Inventory)

This is the critical factor in 2026. The inventory of homes for sale remains historically low, especially in the Quebec City and Lévis regions, where inventory levels sometimes sit below 3 months.

  • Consequence: Bidding wars have not disappeared; they are simply more targeted toward "turnkey" properties in prime locations.

  • Construction: Housing starts are still struggling to keep pace with population growth, maintaining constant upward pressure on resale prices.

4. Regional Disparities

The market is becoming increasingly fragmented:

  • Montreal: The market is trending toward balance, with slightly longer days-on-market (averaging 50 to 60 days).

  • Quebec City & Outlying Areas: Regions like Rimouski, Rivière-du-Loup, and the Quebec City suburbs remain strongly in favor of sellers, with more pronounced price increases.

In summary: It is a market of "smart opportunities" rather than "speculation." Buyers have more time for inspections and due diligence than in 2022, but serious sellers are still achieving their asking prices if they are realistic.

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